DRAWING INFERENCES AT TRICK ONE
Presented by Jim Rasmussen at the Watertown Sectional on August 9th, 2008

Today I will focus on inferences available to the defense from the play of cards. These deductions assume
that you and your partner lead fourth best from length and that you follow some basic defensive guidelines
for third hand play. Namely, when partner leads low and there are no honor cards in dummy third hand normally

        1.      Plays high
        2.      With several cards of equal rank plays the lowest of “equivalent” rank

 Example:                                              North

                                                            s. 943

                         West                                                                East
Opening lead     s. 2                                                                  KJ5
                                                                                                KQ5
                                                                                                JT86 

Deductions by the opening leader based on partner’s play

 Example 1:                                          

                                                            North
                                                            s. T75 

                        West                                                                East
                     s. Q6432                                                         s.  9  ? 

                                                            South
                                                            s. A  ?

                                                                                    One no trump declared by South

Who has the K of spades?   the J?    the 8?    Is it safe to continue spades?
 

Example 2:                                           North
                                                            T75
                                                            K765
                                                            AJ
                                                            QJ75 

                        West                                                                East
                     Q6432                                                                9 
                     A4
                     T876
                     A8                                 

                                                            South
                                                            J 

                                                                             4 Hearts declared by South

 Who has the A?  K?   8?   How does that help you?
South now leads the J of hearts.  What is your defensive plan? 

Here is the full hand: 

North
            T75
            K765
            AJ
            QJ75 

                        West                                                                East
                        Q6432                                                              9 
                        A4                                                                    932
                        T873                                                                Q942
                        A8                                                                    96432

South
           AKJ8
           QJT8
            K65
            KT                                

4 Hearts declared by South 

Example 3:                                           North
                                                            s. 765
                        West                                                                East
                     s. KT42                                                               s. 9  ?

                                                             South
                                                            s. Q  ?

                                                                                                2 Hearts declared by South

Who has the A?  J?   8?    3?

 Example 4:                                           North
                                                            s. T54 

                        West                                                                East
                     s. K832                                                               s. J  ?
 

                                                            South
                                                            s. A  ?

                                                                                                2 Hearts declared by South

Who has the Q?  9?    

Deductions by the opening leader based on declarer’s play

 Example 5:                                           North
                                                            s. AQ5 

                        West                     
                        s. KT732                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                Hearts declared by South

If declarer plays the Ace what is his likely spade holding?
If he plays the Q who probably has the J?

 Example 6:                                           North
                                                            s. QT5 

                        West              
                        s. J2                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                Hearts declared by South

 If declarer plays low from dummy and wins the A in his hand who probably has the K?

 Example 7:                                           North
                                                            s. A75 

                        West    
                      s. KT43                                                               

                                                            Hearts declared by South

If declarer plays the Ace, who has the Q?

 Example 8:                                           North
                                                            s. AJ2 

                        West                                                           
                        s. T863                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                3 NT declared by South

 Declarer plays the Jack covered by the Q and K.  Who has the 9?

Deductions by the third hand based on partner’s opening lead

Rule of 11:  If partner leads 4^th best, subtract the card he has led from eleven and
                     that will be the number of higher cards in the three other hands. 

Example 8:                                           North
                                                            s. T97 

                        West                                                                East
                     s.   5 is led                                                           Q42

                         11 – 5 = 6 cards in the N, E, and S hands higher than the 5           

 Example 9:                                           North
                                                            98
                                                            JT9x
                                                            AKJx
                                                            Qxx 

West                                                                East
             6                                                                     QT2
                                                                                    Axx
                                                                                     xx
                                                                                    JTxxx
                                                   South
                                                    K 

                                                                          S          W        N         E                                        
                                                                         1NT     P          2C       P
                                                                         2D       P          3NT   all pass 

Declarer wins the spade lead with the K, crosses to K of D”s and leads the J of H’s.
What is your defensive plan?

The full hand:

North
            98
            JT9x
            AKJx
            Qxx

West                                                                East
            AJ763                                                              QT2
            xxx                                                                   Axx
            xxx                                                                   xx     
            xx                                                                    JTxxx        
                                               South
                                               K54
                                               KQx
                                               Qxxx
                                               AKx       

                                                            S          W        N         E                                                                                                                      1NT     P          2C       P
                                                                        2D       P          3NT   all pass 

Tip:   Take the time to think about what the bidding and cards played
at Trick 1 tell you about the hand.

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